Flash Investment Update

April 29, 2025

Flash Investment Update

Flash Investment Update

Wednesday, April 30th, 2025

By Laura Kuntz, CPA/PFS, MBT, Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Stock Market. Since posting almost -20% from its 2025 high, U.S. stocks (1) have rebounded to -10% as of yesterday on hopes for trade deals and follow on consistency. If this positive scenario materializes, we suspect that stocks will not easily rebound to their previous highs. Stocks fell because they were concerned about tariffs, which most economists see as a weight on the economy. If tariffs continue, even if nailed down and applied consistently, some weight continues.
However, there may be other catalysts for stock growth beyond today’s value including a stimulative tax bill — one which reduces taxes — and reduced regulation. I have concerns about the growth of the U.S. debt as a result a stimulative tax bill, i.e., income tax cuts, but that is a mid-term and long-term problem, and not one that will necessarily cap stock/bond growth in the near term. Note that while tariffs, if retained, will bring additional tax revenue, they are unlikely to bring sufficient revenue to close the gap on the federal spending deficit. Therefore, our mid- and long-term challenge of too much federal debt is likely to grow. Today, our federal debt is $108,136 per person or $273,919 per household.
U.S. Bonds and International Stocks Continue Positive. For the year:

  • U.S. bonds (2) + 2%,
  • International stocks (3) + 12%

These categories, used as suitable in LWP client portfolios, have been valuable to investors.

Value Buy. As suitable, we purchased U.S. stocks (4) near the -20% low. These positions are posting approximately +10%.
Our goal in serving our clients is two fold: to build appropriate resilience into financial plans, including portfolios – based on our clients’ goals – and take advantage of opportunities. The value buy is one such valuable opportunity.
As always, please let us know your questions and comments.

 

DEFINITIONS

(1) U.S. stocks are measured by the S&P 500 index. This is an index of the 500 largest stocks in the U.S. It is subject to substantial price fluctuation.

(2) U.S. bonds are represented by the SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond ETF which seeks to provide investment results before fees and expenses that correspond to the performance of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Bonds are subject to both interest rate and quality risks.

(3) International Stocks are represented by the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, which seeks to track the investment results, before fees and expenses, of an index composed of large- and mid-capitalization developed market equities, excluding the U.S. and Canada. measured by the MSCI EAFE. It includes a broad range of companies in Europe, Australia, Asia, and the Far East. International stocks are subject to company, currency, and price risks.

(4) As suitable, we purchased an S&P 500 index ETF which seeks to provide investment results before fees and expenses that correspond to the performance of the S&P 500. This investment is subject to substantial price fluctuation.

Data from yahoofinance.com

 

IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLOSURE

The foregoing content reflects the opinions of Laurel Wealth Planning LLC and is subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy, or the completeness of any description of securities, markets, or developments mentioned. The content is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. LWP is a wealth management firm and does not practice law or accountancy.

Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. Securities investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment plan or strategy will be successful.

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The foregoing content reflects the opinions of Laurel Wealth Planning LLC and is subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. Securities investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment plan or strategy will be successful or that markets will act or react as they have in the past.